Here you’ll find research, analysis, and modeling that illustrate how energy systems can change rapidly and insights about how to accelerate change. The toolkit supports decision makers to design ambitious emissions-reduction plans, business strategies, or policies that take advantage of the dynamics of such changes.
Most models and forecasts underestimate how quickly systems can change, assuming that transitions will unfold gradually. But real-world examples show that rapid transformation can happen when actions at sensitive intervention points have disproportionate consequences.
Collective action, tipping points for technologies and behaviors, and ambition loops between public and private sector actors all help drive rapid systems change.
Corporate and government players working together create an environment for ambition — click the arrows to see how it works.
Corporate commitments and investments advance policy ambition
Long-term, consistent policy drives business confidence and investment
Leading corporates drive greater ambition and collaboration among competitors and suppliers
The Transformation Toolkit helps decision makers understand these elements and apply new tools to drive systems change:
Ambition loop case studies and analysis frameworks. A collection of real-world case studies that help inspire and inform industry and finance action, strategies for multi-stakeholder coalitions, and policy design.
Analysis of catalytic market forces that drive economic transitions (e.g., technology learning curves, social tipping points). The economic models that are at the foundation of most global energy systems analysis make little or no provision for ambition loops and the resulting market feedbacks. We are likely to discover that rapid systems change is more readily achieved, and beneficial, than conventional models have led us to believe. These will inform more ambitious policy and corporate actions that lead to a faster transition.
Translation of voluntary corporate and subnational government pledges into implied tangible, real-economy outcomes. By increasing transparency and accountability around voluntary commitments, and tracking their potential implications at a systems level, we can gain a better understanding of the real dynamics of climate action in this decisive decade. This will inspire further climate action and help financiers and policymakers plan for economic implications of voluntary climate action.
This is just the beginning of a long process of adapting our analysis tools to reflect new kinds of climate action and behavior. But it is exactly these changes that have the potential to drive exponential change as climate solutions initiated by private companies, governments, and civil society harmonize and gain momentum. Understanding how to create positive ambition loops will be an essential skill in this decisive decade.