The Corporate Commitments and Emissions Explorer contains five preset outlooks. Outlooks are portfolios of toggle settings that generate a scenario of emission pathways.
This scenario estimates annual emissions based on the following formula:
where c is company, y is year, y0 is the start year (2022), and r is the selected measure of revenue growth relative to the start year. Users can select a revenue growth measure based on the industry’s S&P Global Index or historic growth rates compiled by NYU.
Each target scenario is based on this expanded formula, based on the baseline scenario
where c is company, y is year, y0 is the start year (2022), and r is the selected measure of revenue growth relative to the start year. Each of the variables following revenuegrowthry are multipliers that are applied when the user selects respective toggles (see below).
The base for both baseline and target scenarios is the start year emissions (emissionscy0).
Where companies have disclosed emissions to CDP, emissionscy0 will equal the disclosed emissions in the start year (2022).
Where companies have not disclosed emissions to CDP, emissionscy0 will equal the product of that company’s start year revenue and the emissions intensity for its respective sector. Users can select among minimum, median, and maximum intensities for this estimation.
In the Herd Catches Leaders scenario, we apply a separate intensity column that begins at the median sectoral intensity and ramps down to the minimum intensity (i.e., the leader’s intensity) over a specified number of years. Companies are first categorized into 3 groups that determine the order in which they begin to catch up. A company will begin to ramp down to the minimum intensity in the specified year for its group, over the specified number of years for its group.
Users can select between Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions, or a combination of the two. Scope 1 emissions are emissions associated with a company’s direct activity. Scope 2 emissions are those associated with a company’s energy use. While CDP includes information on Scope 3, most companies do not disclose this information so we do not include it in our dashboard.
Users can select between minimum, median, and maximum sectoral emission intensities for respective emission scopes. The selected intensity is used in estimating the start year emissions where companies do not disclose to CDP. Because these values are based on companies that do disclose to CDP, we believe they will be underestimates (as disclosing companies are more likely to have lower emissions).
Users can select between revenue growth rates from the S&P Global Index or from a database on historical annual growth rates compiled at New York University. These growth rates will be applied to calculate the baseline trajectory. These growth rates are included as revenuegrowthry in the formula above.
End targets are the long-term commitments companies make. For this dashboard, we use commitments tracked by the Net Zero Tracker. We translate end targets into percent reduction from the start year. The percentage reduction is the endtargetscy multiplier in the formula above. Where a company does not have a long-term commitment, endtargetscy is effectively set to 1.
Interim targets are the medium-term commitments companies make, typically by 2030. For this dashboard, we use commitments tracked by the Net Zero Tracker. We translate interim targets into percent reduction from the start year. The percentage reduction is the interimtargetscy multiplier in the formula above. Where a company does not have a long-term commitment, interimtargetscy is effectively set to 1.
If a user selects a slowdown, they postpone corporate action to a later year (2030 or 2040). We apply the baseline trajectory until the postponed year and then apply the end and/or interim target multipliers. While companies will ultimately meet their end and/or interim target (if the user selects these toggles), the cumulative emissions will be significantly higher.
Users can select whether companies meet the targets they set. If a company meets only 30% of its targets, the dashboard will increase the emissions in the target trajectory by 70%. This is included as a constant (partialtargets) in the formula above.
Users can select whether a company meets its target with carbon offsets, and how much of the target it meets using offsets. Offsets will increase a company’s emissions pathway. For example, if a company meets 60% of its target with offsets, its emission pathway will increase by 40%. This is included as a constant (offsets) in the formula above.
If a user selects “yes” for this toggle, herd companies catch up to leader companies in terms of both commitment and intensity. Climate commitments for herd companies are set to net-zero by 2050, 50% reduction by 2030. Emission intensities are set to ramp down to the minimum intensity for that sector. See “Start Year Emissions” above for a description on how this ramping is estimated.
Companies are categorized into three groups: laggard, herd, and leader. We categorize companies based on their climate commitments, emission intensity, and whether they disclose emissions to CDP.
Laggards include companies:
Herd includes companies:
Leaders include companies: